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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Vireo In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Black-capped Vireo in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 675% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+675%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Vireo has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 675% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Black-capped Vireo In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.4–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.4–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.24.6
20263.01.34.7
20273.01.34.7
20283.11.44.8
20293.11.44.8

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Black-capped Vireo in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Allen CreekTEXAS162024
Indian MtnTEXAS152024
San SabaTEXAS42024
LeakeyTEXAS42024
Dripping SpgTEXAS21985
UtopiaTEXAS12023
HarperTEXAS12024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12024
MontellTEXAS12023
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12013
RockspringTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.