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Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Vireo In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Black-capped Vireo in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-34%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Vireo in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Vireo In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.13
20260.060.000.13
20270.060.000.13
20280.060.000.13
20290.060.000.13

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Black-capped Vireo in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LongfellowTEXAS22005
ComstockTEXAS12023
Devils R CynTEXAS12023
Chisos BasinTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.