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Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Vireo In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Black-capped Vireo in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 318% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+318%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Vireo in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Vireo In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.12–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±208.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±208.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.12–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±208.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.100.63
20270.370.100.63
20280.370.110.64
20290.380.110.64
20300.380.120.65

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-capped Vireo in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA122025
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA52025
Pear ValleyTEXAS52025
VerdenOKLAHOMA11973
CoopertonOKLAHOMA12025
WinchellTEXAS12025
EldoradoTEXAS12019
SilverTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.