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Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Vireo In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Black-capped Vireo in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 440% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+440%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Vireo has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 439% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Black-capped Vireo In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.38 (95% range 0.11–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±203.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.38 (95% range 0.11–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.090.63
20260.360.090.63
20270.370.100.64
20280.370.100.65
20290.380.110.65

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-capped Vireo in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA202022
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA92022
VerdenOKLAHOMA11973
CoopertonOKLAHOMA12024
Pear ValleyTEXAS12024
EldoradoTEXAS12019
SilverTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.