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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-crested Titmouse Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Black-crested Titmouse in Texas has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-crested Titmouse Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crested Titmouse has risen sharply in Texas: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-crested Titmouse Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Texas is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.2–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Texas is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.2–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.52.15.0
20273.62.15.0
20283.62.25.0
20293.62.25.0
20303.62.25.0

Black-crested Titmouse Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-crested Titmouse in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oak Grove7719881988
Allen Creek3520251994
Whit Mtn.3520191994
Hondo3220251969
San Saba3120251969
Shields 23120252004
Fitzhugh2419831969
Leander2320061986
Indian Mtn1920251976
Three Rivers1820251994
Albany1620251970
Leakey1620251994
Rockspring1620251994
Osage1520251970
Pear Valley1520251969
Harper1420251969
Brite1320251994
George West1220251967
Valley Spgs1220251967
Cottonwood1220251967
Pidcoke 21220252023
Montell1220251995
Kempner1120251970
Olney1120241970
Walburg1120251988

Black-crested Titmouse Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.