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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crested Titmouse Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Black-crested Titmouse in Texas has surged: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+79%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-crested Titmouse Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crested Titmouse has surged in Texas: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-crested Titmouse Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Texas is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.2–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Texas is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.2–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.62.15.0
20263.62.15.0
20273.62.25.0
20283.62.25.0
20293.62.25.1

Black-crested Titmouse Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-crested Titmouse in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oak Grove7719881988
Utopia3820241969
Whit Mtn.3520191994
Indian Mtn2820241976
Cottonwood2520241967
Fitzhugh2419831969
Leander2320061986
Shields 22320232004
San Saba2220241969
Comanche2120242000
Albany1920241970
George West1820241967
Boerne1820241967
Hondo1720241969
Valley Spgs1720241967
Leakey1520241994
Harper1320241969
Allen Creek1320241994
Olney1120241970
Sejita1120241994
Three Rivers1120241994
Agua Nueva1020231970
Kempner1020241970
Walburg1020241988
Montell1020241995

Black-crested Titmouse Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.