BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crested Titmouse

ParidaeForest birdsBaeolophus atricristatus

Black-crested Titmouse has surged: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+125%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Black-crested Titmouse

The Black-crested Titmouse (Baeolophus atricristatus) is a North American member of the Chickadees & Titmice (Paridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–6 in long (11–15 cm) — a tiny, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 121 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 2 states, most concentrated in the Oaks and Prairies.
Family
Paridae · Forest birds

Notable Black-crested Titmouse TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crested Titmouse has surged in surveyed states: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-crested Titmouse Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.14–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.14–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.130.28
20260.200.130.28
20270.210.130.28
20280.210.130.28
20290.210.140.28

Where the Black-crested Titmouse Is Detected

BBS routes recording Black-crested Titmouse, sized by most recent count.

Black-crested Titmouse Population Trend by State

Black-crested Titmouse population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a1
Texas+79%1969120

Black-crested Titmouse Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Black-crested Titmouse population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+402%196920
Edwards Plateau+6%196919
Oaks and Prairies+240%196929
Chihuahuan Desert+81%197114
Tamaulipan Brushlands+385%196927
Gulf Coastal Prairie+100%19948

Black-crested Titmouse Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 125% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.