BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crested Titmouse In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Black-crested Titmouse in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 240% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+240%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crested Titmouse has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 240% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-crested Titmouse In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 1.5–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 1.5–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.33.9
20262.71.43.9
20272.71.44.0
20282.71.44.0
20292.71.54.0

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Black-crested Titmouse in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oak GroveTEXAS771988
Whit Mtn.TEXAS352019
CottonwoodTEXAS252024
ComancheTEXAS212024
AlbanyTEXAS192024
OlneyTEXAS112024
Three RiversTEXAS112024
WalburgTEXAS102024
BrucevilleTEXAS82024
Lone OakTEXAS72022
OsageTEXAS72024
BriteTEXAS62024
BonnerTEXAS61994
LockhartTEXAS52005
Glen RoseTEXAS52024
DuranTEXAS41998
SeldenTEXAS32024
GrafordTEXAS32019
Oak Grove 2TEXAS32003
FanninTEXAS32023
CampbelltonTEXAS22024
MuldoonTEXAS21995
GauseTEXAS21996
GainesvilleTEXAS21971
HenriettaTEXAS21994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.