BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-crested Titmouse In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Black-crested Titmouse in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+196%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crested Titmouse has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-crested Titmouse In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.5–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.5–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.43.9
20272.71.43.9
20282.71.43.9
20292.71.54.0
20302.71.54.0

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Black-crested Titmouse in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oak GroveTEXAS771988
Whit Mtn.TEXAS352019
Three RiversTEXAS182025
AlbanyTEXAS162025
OsageTEXAS152025
BriteTEXAS132025
CottonwoodTEXAS122025
OlneyTEXAS112024
WalburgTEXAS112025
Lone OakTEXAS72022
BonnerTEXAS61994
MegargelTEXAS62025
HobsonTEXAS52025
LockhartTEXAS52005
SeldenTEXAS52025
DuranTEXAS41998
GrafordTEXAS32019
Oak Grove 2TEXAS32003
FanninTEXAS32023
BrucevilleTEXAS32025
CampbelltonTEXAS22024
MuldoonTEXAS21995
GauseTEXAS21996
Glen RoseTEXAS22025
GainesvilleTEXAS21971

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.