BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-crested Titmouse In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsForest birds

Black-crested Titmouse in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 385% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+385%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crested Titmouse has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 385% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-crested Titmouse In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.8–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.8–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.51.75.4
20273.61.75.5
20283.61.75.5
20293.71.85.6
20303.71.85.6

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Black-crested Titmouse in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HondoTEXAS322025
George WestTEXAS122025
SejitaTEXAS112024
Agua NuevaTEXAS102023
RaymondvilleTEXAS92025
KingsvilleTEXAS72024
San YgnacioTEXAS61985
DilleyTEXAS42025
Catarina 3TEXAS42025
Millett 2TEXAS42024
ZapataTEXAS31987
Mirando CityTEXAS32023
Encinal 2TEXAS32023
EncinalTEXAS22009
La PryorTEXAS22005
El SauzTEXAS22023
Catarina 2TEXAS22017
HeidelbergTEXAS22022
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS22025
RachalTEXAS12025
RandadoTEXAS12023
CatarinaTEXAS12009
El IndioTEXAS12001
GuerraTEXAS12023
ProgresoTEXAS12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.