BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-crested Titmouse In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Black-crested Titmouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 383% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+383%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crested Titmouse has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 383% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-crested Titmouse In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.22–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.22–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.660.191.1
20270.670.201.1
20280.680.211.1
20290.690.211.2
20300.690.221.2

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-crested Titmouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shields 2TEXAS312025
Pear ValleyTEXAS152025
HollisOKLAHOMA122025
ShieldsTEXAS92001
EldoradoTEXAS72023
WinchellTEXAS52025
SilverTEXAS52025
ClarendonTEXAS32024
HawleyTEXAS32025
GraybackTEXAS21984
HackberryTEXAS22024
Mertzon 2TEXAS22024
WilliamsTEXAS22025
LakeviewTEXAS22023
WeinertTEXAS11994
MertzonTEXAS12018
ChildressTEXAS12025
RotanTEXAS11976
HaskellTEXAS12025
Beaver CreekTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.