BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crested Titmouse In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Black-crested Titmouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 402% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+402%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crested Titmouse has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 402% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-crested Titmouse In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.19–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crested Titmouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.19–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.620.161.1
20260.630.171.1
20270.640.171.1
20280.650.181.1
20290.650.191.1

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-crested Titmouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shields 2TEXAS232023
ShieldsTEXAS92001
Pear ValleyTEXAS72024
EldoradoTEXAS72023
WinchellTEXAS52024
ClarendonTEXAS32024
ChildressTEXAS32024
HaskellTEXAS32024
Beaver CreekTEXAS32022
GraybackTEXAS21984
HackberryTEXAS22024
Mertzon 2TEXAS22024
HawleyTEXAS22024
WilliamsTEXAS22024
LakeviewTEXAS22023
HollisOKLAHOMA12016
WeinertTEXAS11994
MertzonTEXAS12018
RotanTEXAS11976
SilverTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.