BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Three-toed Woodpecker

PicidaeForest birdsPicoides dorsalis

American Three-toed Woodpecker has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

14×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
177RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the American Three-toed Woodpecker

The American Three-toed Woodpecker (Picoides dorsalis) is a North American member of the Woodpeckers (Picidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–19.5 in long (15–50 cm) — a chisel-billed climber (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 177 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 14 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Family
Picidae · Forest birds

Notable American Three-toed Woodpecker TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Three-toed Woodpecker. See the full index history below.

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.02–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.02–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.020.03
20260.030.020.03
20270.030.020.03
20280.030.020.04
20290.030.020.04

Where the American Three-toed Woodpecker Is Detected

BBS routes recording American Three-toed Woodpecker, sized by most recent count.

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend by State

American Three-toed Woodpecker population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+112%198752
Arizona-46%19896
Colorado+8%197238
Idaho-25%19946
Maineinsufficient datan/a3
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a1
Montana-37%199219
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a4
New Yorkinsufficient datan/a1
Oregoninsufficient datan/a6
South Dakota+27%19973
Utah+45%199711
Washington-70%199413
Wyoming+45%199214

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

American Three-toed Woodpecker population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 4+50%198840
Northern Pacific Rainforest+222%199413
Great Basin-56%19947
Northern Rockies+9%198843
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+147%197257
Badlands and Prairies-3%19973
Sierra Madre Occidental-60%19895

American Three-toed Woodpecker Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 1328% since 1971.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.