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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

American Three-toed Woodpecker in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-65%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Three-toed Woodpecker Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Three-toed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.14
20270.040.000.14
20280.040.000.14
20290.040.000.14
20300.040.000.14

American Three-toed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording American Three-toed Woodpecker in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpine520192007
Sprucedale320171992
Tsaile220222022
Flagstaff120212021
Dry Park120251992
Blue119911976

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoidahomaineminnesotamontananew-mexiconew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.