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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

American Three-toed Woodpecker in Arizona has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-46%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Three-toed Woodpecker Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Three-toed Woodpecker in Arizona. See the full index history below.

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Arizona is projected to fall about 18% by 2027 — from 0.06 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Arizona is projected to fall about 18% by 2027 — from 0.06 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.050.000.15
20240.050.000.15
20250.050.000.15
20260.050.000.15
20270.050.000.15

American Three-toed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording American Three-toed Woodpecker in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpine520192007
Sprucedale320171992
Tsaile220222022
Flagstaff120212021
Dry Park120221992
Blue119911976

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoidahomaineminnesotamontananew-mexiconew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.