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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

American Three-toed Woodpecker in Utah has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

+45%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Three-toed Woodpecker Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Three-toed Woodpecker in Utah. See the full index history below.

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Utah is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Utah is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.18
20260.090.000.18
20270.090.000.18
20280.090.000.19
20290.090.000.19

American Three-toed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording American Three-toed Woodpecker in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wasatch Nf320142003
La Sal 3220242008
Bryce Canyon220222004
Soapstone220241996
Grizzly Rdge120181987
La Sal 2120032003
Red Spur Mtn.120231999
Heber Mtn.120231997
Beaver120242003
Fish Lake Nf120162003
Navajo Lake120151996

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.