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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

American Three-toed Woodpecker in Utah has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

+80%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Three-toed Woodpecker Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Three-toed Woodpecker has surged in Utah: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Utah is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.01–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Utah is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.01–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.19
20270.100.010.19
20280.100.010.19
20290.100.010.20
20300.100.010.20

American Three-toed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording American Three-toed Woodpecker in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Soapstone520251996
Wasatch Nf320142003
Grizzly Rdge220251987
Bryce Canyon220222004
La Sal 2120032003
Red Spur Mtn.120231999
Heber Mtn.120251997
Beaver120252003
La Sal 3120252008
Fish Lake Nf120162003
Navajo Lake120151996

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacoloradoidahomaineminnesotamontananew-mexiconew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.