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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

American Three-toed Woodpecker in Alaska has surged: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+112%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Three-toed Woodpecker Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Three-toed Woodpecker has surged in Alaska: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Alaska is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.06–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Alaska is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.06–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.040.49
20260.270.050.50
20270.280.050.50
20280.280.050.51
20290.280.060.51

American Three-toed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording American Three-toed Woodpecker in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Katmai N.P.920221993
Seven Lakes520232006
Petersville420221987
Hope420241996
Nabesna Road320211997
Kalifonsky320231982
Swan Lake Rd320231987
Chatanika R220222022
Homer219821982
Manley Ht Sp220192013
Sourdough220242021
Kanuti Lake220242006
Kachemak220031997
Mitkof Isle220182018
Chicken220242022
Eagle120142007
Circle120121993
Chiniak120182018
Livengood120192019
Kuskulana120231992
Tower Bluffs120172015
Chistochina119971994
Mccarthy Rd2120232023
Chena Hot Spring 2120191999
Burma Road120211996

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacoloradoidahomaineminnesotamontananew-mexiconew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.