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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

American Three-toed Woodpecker in Alaska has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+82%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Three-toed Woodpecker Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Three-toed Woodpecker has surged in Alaska: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Alaska is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.06–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Alaska is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.06–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.270.050.49
20270.280.050.50
20280.280.060.50
20290.280.060.50
20300.290.060.51

American Three-toed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording American Three-toed Woodpecker in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Katmai N.P.920221993
Seven Lakes520232006
Swan Lake Rd520241987
Hope420241996
Nabesna Road320211997
Cantwell320252025
Kalifonsky320231982
Petersville320251987
Chatanika R220222022
Homer219821982
Manley Ht Sp220192013
Kanuti Lake220242006
Kachemak220031997
Lake Louise220251999
Mitkof Isle220182018
Chicken220242022
Eagle120142007
Circle120251993
Chiniak120182018
Livengood120192019
Kuskulana120251992
Tower Bluffs120172015
Chistochina119971994
Mccarthy Rd2120232023
Chena Hot Spring 2120191999

American Three-toed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacoloradoidahomaineminnesotamontananew-mexiconew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.