BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Three-toed Woodpecker In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

American Three-toed Woodpecker in BCR 4 has risen sharply: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+50%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Three-toed Woodpecker has risen sharply in BCR 4: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

American Three-toed Woodpecker In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+89%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.000.63
20260.310.000.63
20270.310.000.63
20280.310.000.64
20290.320.000.64

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording American Three-toed Woodpecker in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seven LakesALASKA52023
PetersvilleALASKA42022
KalifonskyALASKA32023
Swan Lake RdALASKA32023
Nabesna RoadALASKA32021
Chatanika RALASKA22022
HomerALASKA21982
SourdoughALASKA22024
ChickenALASKA22024
KachemakALASKA22003
Manley Ht SpALASKA22019
Kanuti LakeALASKA22024
EagleALASKA12014
CircleALASKA12012
LivengoodALASKA12019
Tower BluffsALASKA12017
ChistochinaALASKA11997
WillowALASKA12022
L SalchaALASKA12009
Kenny LakeALASKA12022
TonsinaALASKA12021
Bear CreekALASKA11988
SavageALASKA12018
Hatcher PassALASKA12013
Anchor RiverALASKA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.