Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
American Three-toed Woodpecker In BCR 4
American Three-toed Woodpecker in BCR 4 has risen sharply: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1988.
+50%Since 1988
40Routes In Region
34Years
Notable Signals
long arc increasecomputed index
American Three-toed Woodpecker has risen sharply in BCR 4: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1988.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+89%Change by 2029
0.32Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6495% range
±41.2%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| 2026 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| 2027 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| 2028 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| 2029 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
Routes In BCR 4
| Seven Lakes | ALASKA | 5 | 2023 |
| Petersville | ALASKA | 4 | 2022 |
| Kalifonsky | ALASKA | 3 | 2023 |
| Swan Lake Rd | ALASKA | 3 | 2023 |
| Nabesna Road | ALASKA | 3 | 2021 |
| Chatanika R | ALASKA | 2 | 2022 |
| Homer | ALASKA | 2 | 1982 |
| Sourdough | ALASKA | 2 | 2024 |
| Chicken | ALASKA | 2 | 2024 |
| Kachemak | ALASKA | 2 | 2003 |
| Manley Ht Sp | ALASKA | 2 | 2019 |
| Kanuti Lake | ALASKA | 2 | 2024 |
| Eagle | ALASKA | 1 | 2014 |
| Circle | ALASKA | 1 | 2012 |
| Livengood | ALASKA | 1 | 2019 |
| Tower Bluffs | ALASKA | 1 | 2017 |
| Chistochina | ALASKA | 1 | 1997 |
| Willow | ALASKA | 1 | 2022 |
| L Salcha | ALASKA | 1 | 2009 |
| Kenny Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 2022 |
| Tonsina | ALASKA | 1 | 2021 |
| Bear Creek | ALASKA | 1 | 1988 |
| Savage | ALASKA | 1 | 2018 |
| Hatcher Pass | ALASKA | 1 | 2013 |
| Anchor River | ALASKA | 1 | 2006 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.