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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Three-toed Woodpecker In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

American Three-toed Woodpecker in BCR 4 has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+61%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Three-toed Woodpecker has risen sharply in BCR 4: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

American Three-toed Woodpecker In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.33 (95% range 0.02–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.33 (95% range 0.02–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.010.64
20270.320.010.64
20280.330.010.64
20290.330.010.65
20300.330.020.65

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording American Three-toed Woodpecker in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Swan Lake RdALASKA52024
Seven LakesALASKA52023
CantwellALASKA32025
KalifonskyALASKA32023
PetersvilleALASKA32025
Nabesna RoadALASKA32021
Chatanika RALASKA22022
HomerALASKA21982
ChickenALASKA22024
Lake LouiseALASKA22025
KachemakALASKA22003
Manley Ht SpALASKA22019
Kanuti LakeALASKA22024
EagleALASKA12014
CircleALASKA12025
LivengoodALASKA12019
Tower BluffsALASKA12017
ChistochinaALASKA11997
WillowALASKA12022
L SalchaALASKA12009
Kenny LakeALASKA12022
SourdoughALASKA12025
TonsinaALASKA12021
Bear CreekALASKA11988
SavageALASKA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.