BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Three-toed Woodpecker In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

American Three-toed Woodpecker in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 222% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+222%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Three-toed Woodpecker has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 222% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

American Three-toed Woodpecker In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.08
20260.040.000.08
20270.040.000.08
20280.040.000.08
20290.040.000.08

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording American Three-toed Woodpecker in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HopeALASKA42024
Mitkof IsleALASKA22018
Juneau AltALASKA11984
Sheep MtnALASKA12000
HoonahALASKA12023
SkagwayALASKA11993
Chichagof IsALASKA12024
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA12003
Elk LakeOREGON12003
Bull RunOREGON12016
PackwoodWASHINGTON12012
Mt RainierWASHINGTON12018
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.