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Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Three-toed Woodpecker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

American Three-toed Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+147%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Three-toed Woodpecker has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

American Three-toed Woodpecker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.09–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Three-toed Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.09–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.070.34
20260.210.080.35
20270.220.080.35
20280.220.090.35
20290.220.090.36

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording American Three-toed Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mount EvansCOLORADO62024
Fox ParkWYOMING52023
RadiumCOLORADO32011
Wasatch NfUTAH32014
TsaileARIZONA22022
Willow PeakCOLORADO22012
Dolores RivCOLORADO22018
Dunckley PasCOLORADO22021
Lake City 2COLORADO22024
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO22024
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO22015
Moon PassCOLORADO22014
Gold Hill 2COLORADO22018
SoapstoneUTAH22024
La Sal 3UTAH22024
Bryce CanyonUTAH22022
Fletcher PkWYOMING22016
Dry ParkARIZONA12022
Cheesman LkCOLORADO12006
ParlinCOLORADO12011
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO11972
Lost LakeCOLORADO12022
Red CliffCOLORADO12024
CastletonCOLORADO12016
GuffeyCOLORADO12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.