BirdAnalyst
Guild · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In New Mexico

All statesNew Mexico

78 species in this guild. As a group they are -5%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In New Mexico Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.63–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.63–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.651.5
20271.10.651.5
20281.10.641.5
20291.10.641.5
20301.10.631.5

Member Species In New Mexico

Forest birds species in New Mexico.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-91%
Lazuli BuntingCardinalidae-86%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-85%
Band-tailed PigeonColumbidae-79%
Cassin's FinchFringillidae-76%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-75%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae-74%
Clark's NutcrackerCorvidae-71%
Red CrossbillFringillidae-71%
White-crowned SparrowPasserellidae-67%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae-62%
Woodhouse's Scrub-JayCorvidae-62%
American GoldfinchFringillidae-60%
Pinyon JayCorvidae-60%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae-59%
Bridled TitmouseParidae-54%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-51%
Hutton's VireoVireonidae-50%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae-47%
Mountain BluebirdTurdidae-43%
BushtitAegithalidae-39%
Juniper TitmouseParidae-37%
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-34%
Pine SiskinFringillidae-32%
Western BluebirdTurdidae-32%
Lincoln's SparrowPasserellidae-32%
Orange-crowned WarblerParulidae-30%
MacGillivray's WarblerParulidae-22%
Gray CatbirdMimidae-22%
Williamson's SapsuckerPicidae-21%
Canyon WrenTroglodytidae-19%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae-14%
American RobinTurdidae-10%
Red-naped SapsuckerPicidae-6%
Broad-tailed HummingbirdTrochilidae-3%
Townsend's SolitaireTurdidae-3%
Black-throated Gray WarblerParulidae-1%
Lewis's WoodpeckerPicidae+2%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+3%
Lesser GoldfinchFringillidae+6%
Hooded OrioleIcteridae+6%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+8%
Scott's OrioleIcteridae+17%
Rock WrenTroglodytidae+27%
Red-faced WarblerParulidae+49%
Virginia's WarblerParulidae+61%
Black-chinned HummingbirdTrochilidae+64%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+66%
Grace's WarblerParulidae+85%
Olive WarblerPeucedramidae+87%
Black-headed GrosbeakCardinalidae+101%
Bullock's OrioleIcteridae+101%
Hepatic TanagerCardinalidae+108%
Mountain ChickadeeParidae+110%
Gray VireoVireonidae+137%
Acorn WoodpeckerPicidae+154%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+166%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae+179%
Ladder-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+184%
Steller's JayCorvidae+188%
Green-tailed TowheePasserellidae+189%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae+195%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+214%
Painted BuntingCardinalidae+228%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+244%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+244%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+255%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+296%
PyrrhuloxiaCardinalidae+333%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+342%
Western TanagerCardinalidae+354%
Spotted TowheePasserellidae+366%
Plumbeous VireoVireonidae+410%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+505%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+621%
Bell's VireoVireonidae+800%
Pygmy NuthatchSittidae11×
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae12×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.