BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in New Mexico has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-39%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orange-crowned Warbler Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orange-crowned Warbler in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in New Mexico is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in New Mexico is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.000.65
20260.270.000.64
20270.270.000.64
20280.270.000.64
20290.270.000.64

Orange-crowned Warbler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. Taylor520121996
Cloudcroft520241975
Mcgaffey420091995
Mt. Taylor 2420242015
Angel Fire320021992
Cebolla220231973
Angel Fire 2220242005
Vallecitos220241994
Ojo Sarco120241973
Reserve120112011
Bluewater Lake120052005
Emory Pass120051995
Gallinas120111993

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.