BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Utah has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-49%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orange-crowned Warbler Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orange-crowned Warbler in Utah. See the full index history below.

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.440.001.1
20270.440.001.1
20280.440.001.1
20290.430.001.1
20300.430.001.1

Orange-crowned Warbler Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hyrum819781978
Woodruff620252004
Canyon Rims520182005
Beck419871976
Grizzly Rdge420252017
Oak City320102004
La Sal320001996
La Sal 3320252010
Glen Canyon319921992
Cane Spr Des319931993
Book Ridge220252025
Lost Cr. Res220181995
La Sal 2220062003
Saleratus Cr220121995
Logan Canyon220191997
Navajo Lake220251987
Richfield220151994
Goose Creek Mtn.220082008
Beck 2220251990
Ferron220212003
Monticello220251999
Moon Lake 2120222006
Neponset Res120022002
Altonah119811977
E. Bear Lake120081996

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.