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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Utah has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-57%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orange-crowned Warbler Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orange-crowned Warbler has fallen sharply in Utah: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Utah is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±221.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±221.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Utah is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±221.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.440.001.1
20260.440.001.1
20270.440.001.1
20280.430.001.1
20290.430.001.1

Orange-crowned Warbler Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hyrum819781978
Fayette520181993
Canyon Rims520182005
Beck419871976
La Sal 3420242010
Oak City320102004
Navajo Lake320241987
La Sal320001996
Beck 2320181990
Heber Mtn.320241997
Ant Flat-Ogden Can320231994
Glen Canyon319921992
Cane Spr Des319931993
Lost Cr. Res220181995
Saleratus Cr220121995
La Sal 2220062003
Logan Canyon220191997
Richfield220151994
Goose Creek Mtn.220082008
Ferron220212003
Newcastle220162016
Moon Lake 2120222006
Neponset Res120022002
Altonah119811977
Grizzly Rdge120172017

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.