BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Washington has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-58%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orange-crowned Warbler Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orange-crowned Warbler has fallen sharply in Washington: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Washington is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Washington is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.004.9
20262.10.004.8
20272.10.004.8
20282.00.004.7
20292.00.004.7

Orange-crowned Warbler Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cusick2720241982
Taholah2120221969
Vashon Is.1720241995
Laurier1520221997
Rainier1520191993
Chewelah1420211977
Keller1320071968
Mcchord1320151996
Cloverland1220241993
Kamilche1120241968
Hurricane Rg1120241992
Omak Creek1120241996
Port Angeles1020241970
South Elma1020241975
Montesand1020241986
Raymond 2820242022
Index719711968
Twin Lakes720241984
Ilwaco720241975
Spring Lake620241985
Sullivan Lk619991999
Deception620181992
Mendota 3520242005
Winthrop419891989
Mendota 2420001989

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.