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Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Washington has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orange-crowned Warbler Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orange-crowned Warbler has fallen sharply in Washington: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Washington is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Washington is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.20.004.8
20272.10.004.8
20282.10.004.7
20292.00.004.7
20302.00.004.6

Orange-crowned Warbler Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cusick2320251982
Taholah2120221969
Laurier1520221997
Chewelah1420211977
Keller1320071968
Twin Lakes1320251984
Mcchord1320151996
Port Angeles1220251970
Omak Creek1120241996
South Elma1020241975
Montesand1020241986
Kamilche820251968
Ilwaco820251975
Raymond 2820242022
Index719711968
Spring Lake720251985
Sullivan Lk619991999
Cloverland620251993
Deception620181992
Vashon Is.620251995
Hurricane Rg520251992
Northport520251996
Rainier520251993
Winthrop419891989
Pe Ell420251993

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.