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Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Nevada has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

+55%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orange-crowned Warbler Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orange-crowned Warbler has risen sharply in Nevada: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Nevada is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.01–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±202.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Nevada is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.01–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.010.32
20270.170.010.33
20280.170.010.33
20290.170.010.33
20300.170.010.33

Orange-crowned Warbler Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Austin620182014
Comins Lake520142012
Ruby Valley319991997
Humboldt Nf 2320252021
Jarbidge220141997
Humboldt Nf220181993
Bald Mtn.120242023
Chimney Res.120182017
Fallon119991999
Gardnerville119981998
Hawthorne119991999

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.