BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Alaska has surged: up 294% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+294%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orange-crowned Warbler Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orange-crowned Warbler has surged in Alaska: up 294% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Alaska is projected to rise about 77% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 17–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+77%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Alaska is projected to rise about 77% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 17–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026251635
2027261735
2028261735
2029261735
2030261736

Orange-crowned Warbler Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Copper River9320111993
Dillingham8920191995
Kuiu Island6320102004
Cordova5720241983
Kanuti Canyn5720241993
Homer5219821977
Savage5220251986
Toklat5120241982
Hoonah4920241993
Haines4820251972
Elmendorf (Short)4819851984
Thompson Pas4520251983
Gweek River4520021994
Stikine River4420241998
St. Mary'S4420141993
Kodiak4319841983
Petersburg4319871987
Yakutat4320251993
Dillingham (Short)4119841984
Seward4019921982
King Salmon3920251993
Unalakleet River3720221997
Kachemak3520251986
Cohoe3420232012
Nome3420231993

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.