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Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Idaho has surged: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+204%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orange-crowned Warbler Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orange-crowned Warbler has surged in Idaho: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Idaho is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Idaho is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.902.5
20261.70.932.5
20271.70.952.5
20281.70.972.5
20291.81.002.5

Orange-crowned Warbler Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coolin1920241986
Rochat Divde1620231993
Magic Mtn1620241990
Golden619951993
Mivoden520231977
Naples320211972
N Fork Cda R320191993
Cobalt320131991
Featherville320241991
Gifford220171995
Lolo Pass220191994
Marble Creek220191990
Daniels Res219901988
Blackft Res119941987
Avery120171991
Grangeville120231987
Baker120172003
Challis120231993
Leadore120182007
Squirrel120221971
Centerville120191986
Triangle120072006
Pocatello119911991
Sawtooth City 2120182018
Joel120241990

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradomontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.