BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Wyoming has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-54%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orange-crowned Warbler Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orange-crowned Warbler has fallen sharply in Wyoming: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Wyoming is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±149.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Wyoming is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.23
20260.050.000.23
20270.040.000.23
20280.040.000.23
20290.040.000.22

Orange-crowned Warbler Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prior Flats820171991
Alpine820241990
Hunter Peak319951986
Green River319821977
Moran220132006
Ryan Park220122012
Ne Entrance119911991
Yellowstone120172014
Brookhurst119851970
Savery119951989
Riverside120142005
Moose120231976
Bald Mtn119941990
Crazy Woman120161980
Wilson120241981
Soda Lake120242024
Big Sandy120082008
Fiddler Lk120211995
Warbonnet120091995
Fletcher Pk120161993
Mtn View119831981
Savery 2120222007

Orange-crowned Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.