BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Lewis's Woodpecker in New Mexico has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+2%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lewis's Woodpecker Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lewis's Woodpecker in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to fall about 81% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-81%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to fall about 81% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.18
20270.060.000.18
20280.060.000.18
20290.050.000.18
20300.050.000.18

Lewis's Woodpecker Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Lewis's Woodpecker in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gallinas820251992
Angel Fire 2320252005
Horse Spgs219961977
Angel Fire220011992
Farmington119771977
Dulce120232000
Cebolla120221973
Ojo Sarco120252000
Farley119901987
Reserve120232023
Pecos119971980
Valencia119801980
Stinking Lk.119991992
Mcgaffey120171995
Mt. Taylor120011995

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.