BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Lewis's Woodpecker in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-52%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lewis's Woodpecker Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lewis's Woodpecker has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.15
20260.040.000.15
20270.040.000.15
20280.030.000.15
20290.030.000.14

Lewis's Woodpecker Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Lewis's Woodpecker in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angel Fire 2520242005
Horse Spgs219961977
Angel Fire220011992
Farmington119771977
Dulce120232000
Cebolla120221973
Ojo Sarco120162000
Farley119901987
Reserve120232023
Pecos119971980
Valencia119801980
Stinking Lk.119991992
Mcgaffey120171995
Mt. Taylor120011995
Gallinas120241992

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.