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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Lewis's Woodpecker in Utah has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-81%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lewis's Woodpecker Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lewis's Woodpecker has collapsed in Utah: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±307.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±307.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±307.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.09
20250.000.000.09
20260.000.000.09
20270.000.000.09
20280.000.000.09

Lewis's Woodpecker Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Lewis's Woodpecker in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dixie Nf219971997
Jensen220001992
Beaver220232009
Altonah120011979
E. Bear Lake120192019
Goshen119901990
Red Spur Mtn.120222001
Lynn119901990
Randolph119951995

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.