BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Lewis's Woodpecker in South Dakota has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

+43%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lewis's Woodpecker Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lewis's Woodpecker in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in South Dakota is projected to fall about 53% by 2026 — from 0.10 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in South Dakota is projected to fall about 53% by 2026 — from 0.10 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19982026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.050.000.15
20230.050.000.15
20240.050.000.15
20250.050.000.15
20260.050.000.15

Lewis's Woodpecker Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Lewis's Woodpecker in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lightning Cr320212005
Hazelrodt220171999
Cottonwood120112011
Wind Cave Np120031999
Long Draw119981998
Custer120102003

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.