BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lewis's Woodpecker

PicidaeForest birdsMelanerpes lewis

Lewis's Woodpecker has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-38%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
225RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Lewis's Woodpecker

The Lewis's Woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis) is a North American member of the Woodpeckers (Picidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–19.5 in long (15–50 cm) — a chisel-billed climber (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 225 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 13 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Picidae · Forest birds

Notable Lewis's Woodpecker TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lewis's Woodpecker. See the full index history below.

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.010.04
20260.020.010.04
20270.020.010.04
20280.020.010.04
20290.020.010.04

Where the Lewis's Woodpecker Is Detected

BBS routes recording Lewis's Woodpecker, sized by most recent count.

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Trend by State

Lewis's Woodpecker population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-94%197011
California-75%197043
Colorado-46%197142
Idaho+79%197616
Montana-40%197310
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a1
Nevada-70%199910
New Mexico-52%197815
Oregon-77%197134
South Dakota+43%20006
Utah-81%19929
Washington-83%197020
Wyoming-75%19898

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Lewis's Woodpecker population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-63%197313
Great Basin-72%197058
Northern Rockies-78%197043
Sierra Nevada-86%19729
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-59%197058
Badlands and Prairies-57%19968
Shortgrass Prairie-23%198711
Coastal California-74%197218
Sierra Madre Occidental-96%19707

Lewis's Woodpecker Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 38% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.