BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lewis's Woodpecker In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Lewis's Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

-57%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lewis's Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Lewis's Woodpecker In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.020.000.11
20230.010.000.11
20240.010.000.10
20250.010.000.10
20260.010.000.10

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Lewis's Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA32021
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING32005
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA12010
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA11998
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA12011
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA12003
SeelyWYOMING11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.