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Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Lewis's Woodpecker in Washington has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-83%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lewis's Woodpecker Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lewis's Woodpecker has collapsed in Washington: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in Washington is projected to fall about 77% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-77%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in Washington is projected to fall about 77% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.78
20260.090.000.77
20270.080.000.76
20280.080.000.75
20290.070.000.75

Lewis's Woodpecker Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Lewis's Woodpecker in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Twisp1220241969
Curlew520131994
Snowden319891982
Reardan220102002
Wapato219931977
Cusick220242024
Lake Chelan220181995
Keller119951968
Chewelah119781978
Ardenvoir119821971
Rimrock119691969
Tonasket119971992
Wilbur120231986
Ellensburg120241981
Spring Lake120182012
Nighthawk120241992
Harwood119941994
Pomeroy120162016
Laurier120182013
Yakima120241994

Lewis's Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.