BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lewis's Woodpecker In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Lewis's Woodpecker in Northern Rockies has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lewis's Woodpecker has collapsed in Northern Rockies: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 94% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-94%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 94% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.19
20260.010.000.19
20270.010.000.18
20280.010.000.18
20290.010.000.18

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Lewis's Woodpecker in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NezperceIDAHO61992
CurlewWASHINGTON52013
CascadeIDAHO41983
Salmon RiverIDAHO42021
Mount VernonOREGON42019
TroyOREGON42024
ArleeMONTANA32021
Hells CanyonOREGON32022
FeathervilleIDAHO22023
PolsonMONTANA22024
WoodmanMONTANA22022
AlbeeOREGON22023
BridgeportOREGON22022
Summit PrOREGON22023
CusickWASHINGTON22024
NaplesIDAHO11975
MivodenIDAHO11989
ChallisIDAHO12019
CoolinIDAHO11987
Libby DamMONTANA12024
EllistonMONTANA11976
SulaMONTANA12023
Willow CreekMONTANA11973
NinemileMONTANA12016
Inside RoadMONTANA12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.