BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lewis's Woodpecker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Lewis's Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lewis's Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lewis's Woodpecker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lewis's Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.24
20260.070.000.24
20270.070.000.23
20280.070.000.23
20290.060.000.23

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Lewis's Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colona 2COLORADO62021
PiedraCOLORADO62024
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO52024
DoloresCOLORADO41984
Blackhead PkCOLORADO42019
AspenCOLORADO32023
UncompahgreCOLORADO32024
GardnerCOLORADO32024
GreasewoodARIZONA21996
TsaileARIZONA21993
ColonaCOLORADO22014
ParlinCOLORADO22005
CastletonCOLORADO22021
PaoniaCOLORADO22018
CokedaleCOLORADO21998
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO22009
Mcphee Res.COLORADO22024
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO21996
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO22001
BeaverUTAH22023
JensenUTAH22000
Dixie NfUTAH21997
House RockARIZONA12004
Round RockARIZONA11976
SawmillARIZONA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.