BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pygmy Nuthatch Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Pygmy Nuthatch in New Mexico has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

11×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pygmy Nuthatch Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pygmy Nuthatch has surged in New Mexico: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pygmy Nuthatch Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in New Mexico is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.84–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in New Mexico is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.84–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.732.7
20271.70.762.7
20281.70.792.7
20291.80.812.7
20301.80.842.8

Pygmy Nuthatch Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Pygmy Nuthatch in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reserve7020251993
Mt. Taylor 23620242014
Bluewater Lake3220211999
Mt. Taylor2320121993
Vallecitos2020251994
Angel Fire1220021992
Cebolla720221973
Mcgaffey620251994
Cloudcroft520221978
Ojo Sarco420251968
Angel Fire 2420252005
Gallinas420251992
Pinon420171992
Pecos320171975
Fence Lake220171978
Claunch219951978
Horse Spgs220252025
Vicks Peak220251993
Horse Mtn120241968
Carrizozo120241978
Dulce120252000
Emory Pass120251993
Claunch 2120252004

Pygmy Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.