BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pygmy Nuthatch Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Pygmy Nuthatch in New Mexico has surged: up 943% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+943%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pygmy Nuthatch Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pygmy Nuthatch has surged in New Mexico: up 943% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pygmy Nuthatch Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in New Mexico is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.77–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.77–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in New Mexico is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.77–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.672.5
20261.60.692.6
20271.60.722.6
20281.70.742.6
20291.70.772.6

Pygmy Nuthatch Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Pygmy Nuthatch in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reserve4020231993
Mt. Taylor 23620242014
Bluewater Lake3220211999
Mt. Taylor2320121993
Angel Fire 21220242005
Angel Fire1220021992
Gallinas1020241992
Cebolla720221973
Cloudcroft520221978
Vallecitos420241994
Emory Pass420241993
Pinon420171992
Pecos320171975
Claunch 2320192004
Fence Lake220171978
Claunch219951978
Ojo Sarco120241968
Horse Mtn120241968
Carrizozo120241978
Dulce120162000
Mcgaffey120231994
Vicks Peak120231993

Pygmy Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.