BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Virginia's Warbler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Virginia's Warbler in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+61%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Virginia's Warbler Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Virginia's Warbler has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Virginia's Warbler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Virginia's Warbler in New Mexico is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.35–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia's Warbler in New Mexico is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.35–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.321.9
20271.10.331.9
20281.10.341.9
20291.10.351.9
20301.10.351.9

Virginia's Warbler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Virginia's Warbler in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cebolla1220231973
Gallinas1220251992
Angel Fire1020021992
Stinking Lk.519991992
Claunch420001980
Vallecitos420251994
Claunch 2420252001
Capulin319931993
Angel Fire 2320252005
Vicks Peak320081996
Ojo Sarco220251968
Dulce220252000
Pecos120161973
Fence Lake120041977
Carrizozo120251977
Cloudcroft120241982
Mt. Taylor 2120242014
Mcgaffey120251997
Mt. Taylor120121993
Reserve120231993
Emory Pass120251993
Pinon120161995
Bluewater Lake120151999

Virginia's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadasouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.