BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia's Warbler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Virginia's Warbler in New Mexico has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+45%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Virginia's Warbler Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia's Warbler in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Virginia's Warbler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Virginia's Warbler in New Mexico is projected to rise about 147% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.39–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+147%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia's Warbler in New Mexico is projected to rise about 147% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.39–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.351.9
20261.20.361.9
20271.20.372.0
20281.20.382.0
20291.20.392.0

Virginia's Warbler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Virginia's Warbler in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gallinas1720211992
Cebolla1220231973
Angel Fire1020021992
Vallecitos620241994
Stinking Lk.519991992
Claunch420001980
Dulce420242000
Ojo Sarco320241968
Capulin319931993
Vicks Peak320081996
Emory Pass320241993
Claunch 2320242001
Carrizozo220131977
Pecos120161973
Fence Lake120041977
Angel Fire 2120242005
Cloudcroft120241982
Mt. Taylor 2120242014
Mcgaffey120231997
Mt. Taylor120121993
Reserve120231993
Pinon120161995
Bluewater Lake120151999

Virginia's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadasouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.