Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Virginia's Warbler Population Trend in Arizona
Virginia's Warbler in Arizona has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
+109%Since 1970
24Routes In State
54Years
Notable Virginia's Warbler Trends in Arizona
long arc increasecomputed index
Virginia's Warbler has surged in Arizona: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Virginia's Warbler Population Forecast in Arizona
If the recent trend holds, Virginia's Warbler in Arizona is projected to rise about 617% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±284.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+617%Change by 2029
0.82Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.295% range
±284.1%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 4.4 |
| 2026 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 4.4 |
| 2027 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 4.3 |
| 2028 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 4.3 |
| 2029 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 4.2 |
Virginia's Warbler Survey Routes in Arizona
| Prescott | 19 | 2022 | 1974 |
| Pomerene | 17 | 2004 | 1995 |
| Aztec Peak | 10 | 1978 | 1974 |
| Mt. Graham | 10 | 2023 | 1995 |
| Tonto Vill. | 7 | 2021 | 1994 |
| Skull Valley | 3 | 2011 | 1996 |
| Blue | 2 | 1991 | 1975 |
| Sunizona | 2 | 1996 | 1968 |
| Forest Lakes | 2 | 2024 | 1994 |
| House Rock | 1 | 1974 | 1974 |
| Black Mesa | 1 | 1992 | 1992 |
| Portal | 1 | 2024 | 1978 |
| Rucker | 1 | 1997 | 1996 |
| Flagstaff | 1 | 1991 | 1990 |
| Sawmill | 1 | 2014 | 2005 |
| Mormon Lake | 1 | 1975 | 1968 |
| Dry Park | 1 | 2004 | 2000 |
| Williams | 1 | 2018 | 2001 |
| Maine | 1 | 1997 | 1997 |
| Alpine | 1 | 2018 | 1996 |
| Seligman | 1 | 2011 | 2011 |
| Happy Jack | 1 | 2022 | 1999 |
| Carr Mtn | 1 | 2024 | 1985 |
| Sprucedale | 1 | 2022 | 1992 |
Virginia's Warbler Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.