BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-faced Warbler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Red-faced Warbler in New Mexico has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+49%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-faced Warbler Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-faced Warbler in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Red-faced Warbler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Red-faced Warbler in New Mexico is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.01–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-faced Warbler in New Mexico is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.01–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.270.010.52
20270.260.010.52
20280.260.010.52
20290.260.010.51
20300.260.010.51

Red-faced Warbler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Red-faced Warbler in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emory Pass1120251993
Reserve920231993
Cloudcroft320251981
Vicks Peak220052005

Red-faced Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.