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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-faced Warbler Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Red-faced Warbler in Arizona has surged: up 402% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+402%Since 1970
15Routes In State
54Years

Notable Red-faced Warbler Trends in Arizona

long arc increasecomputed index

Red-faced Warbler has surged in Arizona: up 402% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-faced Warbler Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Red-faced Warbler in Arizona is projected to rise about 183% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+183%Change by 2029
0.89Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.295% range
±56.6%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.910.002.2
20260.900.002.2
20270.900.002.2
20280.890.002.2
20290.890.002.2

Red-faced Warbler Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Red-faced Warbler in Arizona.
Mt. Graham4420231995
Prescott1620221975
Happy Jack820241977
Flagstaff619881988
Portal320241975
Alpine320231994
Rucker220041995
Tonto Vill.120212003
Pinetop120212021
Carr Mtn120171988
Mormon Lake119741968
Aztec Peak119781974
Blue119901974
Williams120182001
Sprucedale120211996

Red-faced Warbler Population Trend in Other States

new-mexico

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.