BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

MacGillivray's Warbler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

MacGillivray's Warbler in New Mexico has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-22%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable MacGillivray's Warbler Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for MacGillivray's Warbler in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

MacGillivray's Warbler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, MacGillivray's Warbler in New Mexico is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, MacGillivray's Warbler in New Mexico is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.220.000.57
20270.220.000.56
20280.210.000.56
20290.210.000.55
20300.210.000.55

MacGillivray's Warbler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording MacGillivray's Warbler in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ojo Sarco520251968
Vallecitos320251994
Cebolla220221977
Reserve220211993
Capulin119931993
Angel Fire 2120252005
Bluewater Lake120072001
Gallinas120211992
Horse Mtn119691969
Claunch 2120252015
Angel Fire119971992
Mcgaffey119971997
Mt. Taylor120121993
Cloudcroft120251975

MacGillivray's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.