BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

MacGillivray's Warbler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

MacGillivray's Warbler in New Mexico has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable MacGillivray's Warbler Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for MacGillivray's Warbler in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

MacGillivray's Warbler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, MacGillivray's Warbler in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, MacGillivray's Warbler in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.57
20260.220.000.57
20270.220.000.56
20280.210.000.56
20290.210.000.56

MacGillivray's Warbler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording MacGillivray's Warbler in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ojo Sarco520241968
Cloudcroft320241975
Cebolla220221977
Reserve220211993
Angel Fire 2220232005
Claunch 2220172015
Capulin119931993
Bluewater Lake120072001
Gallinas120211992
Horse Mtn119691969
Angel Fire119971992
Mcgaffey119971997
Mt. Taylor120121993
Vallecitos120241994

MacGillivray's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.