Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
MacGillivray's Warbler Population Trend in Alaska
MacGillivray's Warbler in Alaska has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1986.
-92%Since 1986
16Routes In State
37Years
Notable MacGillivray's Warbler Trends in Alaska
long arc declinecomputed index
MacGillivray's Warbler has collapsed in Alaska: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1986.
MacGillivray's Warbler Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, MacGillivray's Warbler in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.4695% range
±170.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
MacGillivray's Warbler Survey Routes in Alaska
| Hyder | 10 | 2009 | 1994 |
| Craig | 3 | 2019 | 1987 |
| Thorne Bay | 3 | 1990 | 1990 |
| Stikine River | 2 | 2024 | 1998 |
| Kuiu Island | 2 | 2004 | 2004 |
| Juneau Alt | 2 | 1986 | 1986 |
| Haines | 2 | 2024 | 1972 |
| Zimovia Strt | 1 | 1994 | 1988 |
| Eagle | 1 | 1982 | 1982 |
| Skagway | 1 | 2014 | 1993 |
| Zarembo | 1 | 1993 | 1993 |
| Juneau | 1 | 1986 | 1986 |
| Ketchikan | 1 | 2016 | 2000 |
| Whale Pass | 1 | 2019 | 2019 |
| Yakutat | 1 | 2004 | 2004 |
| Mitkof Isle | 1 | 2024 | 1989 |
MacGillivray's Warbler Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.