BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Plumbeous Vireo in New Mexico has surged: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+365%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Plumbeous Vireo Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Plumbeous Vireo has surged in New Mexico: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Plumbeous Vireo Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in New Mexico is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.4–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in New Mexico is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.4–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.42.24.6
20263.42.34.6
20273.52.34.7
20283.52.44.7
20293.62.44.8

Plumbeous Vireo Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Plumbeous Vireo in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reserve3320231993
Bluewater Lake2120211999
Angel Fire 21820242005
Claunch 21520242001
Mcgaffey1120231994
Emory Pass1120241993
Ojo Sarco1020241968
Pecos1020171973
Fence Lake1020241975
Mt. Taylor 21020242014
Cloudcroft920241975
Mt. Taylor920121993
Carrizozo820241977
Angel Fire620021992
Stinking Lk.519991992
Vicks Peak520241992
Claunch320001977
Dulce320242000
Counselor320241992
Vallecitos320241994
Sabinoso219991989
Farmington119831983
Nageesi120171987
Cebolla120231973
Horse Spgs120231975

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.