BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Plumbeous Vireo in New Mexico has surged: up 410% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+410%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Plumbeous Vireo Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Plumbeous Vireo has surged in New Mexico: up 410% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Plumbeous Vireo Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in New Mexico is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.5–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in New Mexico is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.5–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.42.34.6
20273.52.34.6
20283.52.44.7
20293.62.44.7
20303.62.54.8

Plumbeous Vireo Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Plumbeous Vireo in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reserve2520251993
Gallinas2320251992
Bluewater Lake2120211999
Cloudcroft2020251975
Claunch 21820252001
Angel Fire 21320252005
Emory Pass1220251993
Pecos1020171973
Mt. Taylor 21020242014
Mt. Taylor920121993
Fence Lake620251975
Carrizozo620251977
Angel Fire620021992
Vallecitos620251994
Stinking Lk.519991992
Ojo Sarco420251968
Claunch320001977
Dulce320252000
Mcgaffey320251994
Vicks Peak320251992
Sabinoso219991989
Farmington119831983
Nageesi120171987
Cebolla120231973
Horse Spgs120251975

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.