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Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Plumbeous Vireo in South Dakota has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+154%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Plumbeous Vireo Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Plumbeous Vireo has surged in South Dakota: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Plumbeous Vireo Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in South Dakota is projected to rise about 167% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.35–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±208.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+167%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±208.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in South Dakota is projected to rise about 167% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.35–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±208.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.302.3
20271.30.322.3
20281.30.332.3
20291.30.342.3
20301.30.352.3

Plumbeous Vireo Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Plumbeous Vireo in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lightning Cr520251992
Elk Mountain520041992
Roubaix Lk519911967
Silver City520121992
Hazelrodt320251992
Custer320251967
Norbeck320021992
Pleasant Val220241992
Hill City220131992
Long Draw220251995
Rochford120171993
Wind Cave Np120251999
Englewood120061992

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.