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Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Plumbeous Vireo in South Dakota has surged: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+178%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Plumbeous Vireo Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Plumbeous Vireo has surged in South Dakota: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Plumbeous Vireo Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in South Dakota is projected to rise about 205% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.42–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+205%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±170.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in South Dakota is projected to rise about 205% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.42–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.362.3
20261.30.382.3
20271.40.392.3
20281.40.412.3
20291.40.422.4

Plumbeous Vireo Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Plumbeous Vireo in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lightning Cr1020221992
Elk Mountain520041992
Roubaix Lk519911967
Silver City520121992
Custer420241967
Hazelrodt320241992
Wind Cave Np320181999
Norbeck320021992
Pleasant Val220241992
Hill City220131992
Rochford120171993
Englewood120061992
Long Draw120241995

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.