BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Plumbeous Vireo in California has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-63%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Plumbeous Vireo Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Plumbeous Vireo has fallen sharply in California: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Plumbeous Vireo Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±136.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.18
20260.010.000.18
20270.010.000.18
20280.000.000.17
20290.000.000.17

Plumbeous Vireo Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Plumbeous Vireo in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tahoe Nf1719941987
Lumberyard1419961976
Riverton1019961973
Deep Springs220211990
Bodie120242011
Crestview120241997
Woodlands120182018
Benton120192013
Last Chance120101993
Crowley Lake119861986

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in Other States

arizonacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicosouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.