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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Plumbeous Vireo in Arizona has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+46%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Plumbeous Vireo Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Plumbeous Vireo in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Plumbeous Vireo Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Arizona is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.44–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.44–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Arizona is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.44–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.70.404.9
20262.70.414.9
20272.70.424.9
20282.70.434.9
20292.70.444.9

Plumbeous Vireo Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Plumbeous Vireo in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy Jack4720241977
Sawmill3720141988
Pinetop2420221994
Sprucedale2120231992
Forest Lakes1820241992
Alpine1720231992
Flagstaff1520221988
Prescott1420221974
Portal1120241975
Tonto Vill.1120211992
Blue1019911975
Williams1020191993
Mt. Graham720231995
Carr Mtn720241985
Rucker620091993
Aztec Peak619781974
Tsaile620231993
Black Mesa519951989
Zeniff519841972
Mormon Lake319751968
Pomerene320061996
Sunizona219961968
Toroweap220192000
Cow Springs220182017
Alamo Res.220061998

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicosouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.