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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Plumbeous Vireo in Arizona has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+85%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Plumbeous Vireo Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Plumbeous Vireo has surged in Arizona: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Plumbeous Vireo Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Arizona is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.57–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Arizona is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.57–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.80.525.1
20272.80.535.1
20282.80.555.1
20292.80.565.1
20302.80.575.1

Plumbeous Vireo Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Plumbeous Vireo in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy Jack5920251977
Sprucedale4220251992
Sawmill3720141988
Pinetop2420221994
Tonto Vill.1720251992
Williams1520251993
Mt. Graham1320251995
Alpine1120251992
Portal1020251975
Blue1019911975
Rucker620091993
Aztec Peak619781974
Tsaile620231993
Black Mesa519951989
Prescott520251974
Zeniff519841972
Mormon Lake319751968
Pomerene320061996
Forest Lakes320251992
Flagstaff220251988
Sunizona219961968
Toroweap220192000
Dry Park220251992
Cow Springs220182017
Alamo Res.220061998

Plumbeous Vireo Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.