BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grace's Warbler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Grace's Warbler in New Mexico has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+85%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grace's Warbler Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grace's Warbler has surged in New Mexico: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Grace's Warbler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Grace's Warbler in New Mexico is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.92–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grace's Warbler in New Mexico is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.92–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.842.2
20271.60.862.3
20281.60.882.3
20291.60.902.3
20301.60.922.3

Grace's Warbler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Grace's Warbler in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bluewater Lake3020211999
Reserve2120251993
Cloudcroft1020251981
Mt. Taylor1020121993
Cebolla920231973
Vallecitos820251994
Mt. Taylor 2720242014
Angel Fire 2620242007
Gallinas620251992
Mcgaffey320251995
Carrizozo220241977
Pinon220241992
Claunch 2220242001
Ojo Sarco120251968
Pecos120151973
Fence Lake119781978
Claunch120001978
Horse Mtn120241969
Dulce120242013
Stinking Lk.119991994
Angel Fire120011992
Vicks Peak120251992
Emory Pass120241993

Grace's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.