BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grace's Warbler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Grace's Warbler in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+66%Since 1970
23Routes In State
53Years

Notable Grace's Warbler Trends in New Mexico

long arc increasecomputed index

Grace's Warbler has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Grace's Warbler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Grace's Warbler in New Mexico is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.94–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2029
1.6Projected 2029 index
0.94–2.395% range
±50.1%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.50.852.2
20261.60.882.3
20271.60.902.3
20281.60.922.3
20291.60.942.3

Grace's Warbler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Grace's Warbler in New Mexico.
Bluewater Lake3020211999
Reserve1520231993
Gallinas1220211992
Mt. Taylor1020121993
Cebolla920231973
Cloudcroft920241981
Mt. Taylor 2720242014
Vallecitos720241994
Angel Fire 2620242007
Ojo Sarco420241968
Carrizozo220241977
Vicks Peak220211992
Pinon220241992
Claunch 2220242001
Pecos120151973
Fence Lake119781978
Claunch120001978
Horse Mtn120241969
Dulce120242013
Stinking Lk.119991994
Angel Fire120011992
Mcgaffey120231995
Emory Pass120241993

Grace's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.