Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Grace's Warbler Population Trend in Arizona
Grace's Warbler in Arizona has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
+65%Since 1970
23Routes In State
54Years
Notable Grace's Warbler Trends in Arizona
long arc increasecomputed index
Grace's Warbler has risen sharply in Arizona: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Grace's Warbler Population Forecast in Arizona
If the recent trend holds, Grace's Warbler in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.6 (95% range 0.80–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+1%Change by 2029
2.6Projected 2029 index
0.80–4.495% range
±6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.6 | 0.78 | 4.3 |
| 2026 | 2.6 | 0.78 | 4.3 |
| 2027 | 2.6 | 0.79 | 4.3 |
| 2028 | 2.6 | 0.79 | 4.4 |
| 2029 | 2.6 | 0.80 | 4.4 |
Grace's Warbler Survey Routes in Arizona
| Happy Jack | 62 | 2024 | 1977 |
| Sawmill | 37 | 2014 | 1988 |
| Tsaile | 28 | 2023 | 1993 |
| Tonto Vill. | 23 | 2021 | 1992 |
| Sprucedale | 21 | 2023 | 1992 |
| Aztec Peak | 16 | 1978 | 1974 |
| Mt. Graham | 14 | 2023 | 1995 |
| Rucker | 11 | 2009 | 1993 |
| Alpine | 10 | 2023 | 1992 |
| Forest Lakes | 9 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Flagstaff | 8 | 2022 | 1988 |
| Prescott | 7 | 2022 | 1975 |
| Dry Park | 7 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Carr Mtn | 6 | 2024 | 1985 |
| Portal | 5 | 2024 | 1975 |
| Zeniff | 3 | 1968 | 1968 |
| Blue | 3 | 1991 | 1974 |
| Sunizona | 3 | 1975 | 1974 |
| Williams | 3 | 2018 | 2001 |
| Maine | 2 | 2021 | 1997 |
| Pinetop | 2 | 2022 | 1994 |
| Round Rock | 1 | 1976 | 1969 |
| Mormon Lake | 1 | 1975 | 1968 |
Grace's Warbler Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.