BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Vireo Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Gray Vireo in New Mexico has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+137%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Vireo Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Vireo has surged in New Mexico: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Gray Vireo Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Gray Vireo in New Mexico is projected to rise about 85% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.16–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+85%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Vireo in New Mexico is projected to rise about 85% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.16–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.310.140.49
20270.320.140.49
20280.330.150.50
20290.330.150.51
20300.340.160.51

Gray Vireo Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Gray Vireo in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La Plata 21020162014
La Plata420131993
Salt Lake 2320242005
Mcgaffey320252023
Sabinoso320212000
La Cienega220221976
Pecos219731973
Magdalena220252009
Counselor220241992
Farmington119801980
Nageesi120251995
Torreon120172014
Horse Spgs120221999
Horse Mtn120121998
Gage120252025
Vallecitos120232023
Mountainair120242024
Reserve120252013
Vicks Peak120222022
Capitan Mtn.120162016
Emory Pass120121994
Pinon120241992
Queen120211999
Escondida120222022
Claunch 2120242015

Gray Vireo Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.