BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Gray Warbler in New Mexico has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-7%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Gray Warbler Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Gray Warbler in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in New Mexico is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in New Mexico is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.550.001.1
20260.560.001.1
20270.560.001.1
20280.560.001.1
20290.570.001.1

Black-throated Gray Warbler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Black-throated Gray Warbler in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reserve2120231993
Mt. Taylor1020121995
Ojo Sarco720241968
Mt. Taylor 2520242014
Carrizozo320241977
La Plata320112008
Pinon320241996
Pecos220171973
Horse Spgs219961975
Mcgaffey220232009
Gallinas220212005
Claunch 2220232001
Cebolla119941973
La Cienega120101976
Fence Lake120172004
Claunch120001977
Horse Mtn120181972
Counselor120152008
Vallecitos119951995
Vicks Peak120221994
Emory Pass120241993
Bluewater Lake120191999

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.