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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Gray Warbler in Oregon has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Gray Warbler Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Gray Warbler in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Oregon is projected to rise about 77% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.98–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+77%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.98–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Oregon is projected to rise about 77% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.98–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.932.7
20271.80.952.7
20281.80.962.7
20291.90.972.7
20301.90.982.8

Black-throated Gray Warbler Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Black-throated Gray Warbler in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fisher1920101997
Svensen1819921990
Lorane1720251994
Whiskey Spg.1420222015
Winberry1220231968
Secret Val1020251977
Badger Creek920251992
Timber820171968
Wedderburn820241970
Klickitat Mt819961993
Mt Hood720251987
Lobster Creek720252025
Selma720251994
Riley Peak520161994
Harlan 2520252012
Warner Mtn.520251995
Shellrock420241977
Umpqua420251968
Trask Summit420241992
Coquille420251994
Myrtle Grove420241992
Ruch420251993
Molalla320251994
Santiam320251994
Nicolai Mtn.320251993

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.