BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Gray Warbler in Oregon has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Gray Warbler Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Gray Warbler in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Oregon is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.0–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Oregon is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.0–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.992.7
20261.91.02.7
20271.91.02.8
20281.91.02.8
20291.91.02.8

Black-throated Gray Warbler Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Black-throated Gray Warbler in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Hood2320241987
Ruch2320231993
Fisher1920101997
Svensen1819921990
Badger Creek1420241992
Whiskey Spg.1420222015
Lorane1420241994
Winberry1220231968
Secret Val920221977
Cinderella920241994
Timber820171968
Wedderburn820241970
Klickitat Mt819961993
Warner Mtn.720241995
Harlan 2620242012
Riley Peak520161994
Bull Run420242008
Umpqua420241968
Elkton420241972
Trask Summit420241992
Myrtle Grove420241992
Molalla320241994
Nicolai Mtn.320241993
Buchanan319721972
Adair320232023

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicoutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.