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Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Gray Warbler in Idaho has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-6%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Gray Warbler Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Gray Warbler in Idaho. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±170.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.20
20260.080.000.20
20270.080.000.20
20280.070.000.20
20290.070.000.20

Black-throated Gray Warbler Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Black-throated Gray Warbler in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Almo120221988
Silver City120151994
Kyle Canyon119951995
Triangle120241985
Magic Mtn120191993
Pocatello119861979
Dougal Res120111988

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradonevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.