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Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Gray Warbler in Nevada has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-36%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Gray Warbler Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Gray Warbler in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Nevada is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±118.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Nevada is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.000.61
20260.250.000.61
20270.250.000.61
20280.250.000.61
20290.250.000.61

Black-throated Gray Warbler Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Black-throated Gray Warbler in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt Nf520151993
Ranchogrande420231996
Illipah320211991
Willis320241995
Austin220162009
Humboldt Nf 2220212021
Jarbidge120151997
Bald Mtn.120241993
Comins Lake120132005
Cortez120182016
Walker Can120221999
Dobbin Creek119951995
Minerva120151989
Hawthorne120012001

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.