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Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Gray Warbler in California has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+87%Since 1970
133Routes In State
56Years

Notable Black-throated Gray Warbler Trends in California

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-throated Gray Warbler has surged in California: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in California is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.8–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2029
3.2Projected 2029 index
1.8–4.795% range
±86.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.21.74.6
20263.21.74.6
20273.21.74.6
20283.21.84.7
20293.21.84.7

Black-throated Gray Warbler Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Black-throated Gray Warbler in California.
Horse Creek5420191970
Waterman Gap4820241972
Forest Hill3920221997
Forest Hill 23320052005
Hay Fork2520172001
Hough Springs2520071999
Orleans2420121972
Placerville2220241998
Martins Fy2120091976
Valyermo2020191971
Shasta Lake1520241972
Orleans 21520142014
Hiouchi1520142002
Alderpoint1420121974
Ship Mtn.1420171994
Honeydew1220171968
Big Flat1220142002
Silver City1120131978
Longvale1120231972
Butte Meadow1120141972
Bartlett Sps1120181973
Korbel1120241972
Cohasset1020241976
Whiskeytown1020122002
Strawberry1020191999

Black-throated Gray Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.